What to Watch - Week of 26 April
Past Week
- Unhelpfully strong Australian CPI sees RBA cut pricing erased and the AUD/USD stronger.
- Just one cut now priced out to the end of 2025, and market pricing allows some small risk of a hike to the end of this year.
- USDJPY slides through 156 to new 34-year low.
- PMIs were robust in Europe, but softer in the US.
Comment
- US Q1 GDP disappointed but it is still robust compared to other economies.
- Australia’s recent activity outcomes compare favourably almost everywhere except the US.
- Real disposable incomes have been squeezed comparatively hard in Australia, but the outlook is for improvement.
Week ahead
- AU Retail Sales headlines a mostly second tier local data calendar.
- NZ Q1 employment data is expected to see unemployment rise three tenths to 4.3% on 0.3% q/q employment growth.
- The FOMC on Wednesday is on hold with no new projections.
- US Payrolls on Friday is expected to show another healthy payrolls gain (consensus 250k) while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%.
- Earnings season continues, with Apple and Amazon in focus this week.
- In Europe, Preliminary April CPI is on Tuesday, ahead of the advanced Q1 GDP print on Wednesday.
- Elsewhere, Chinese PMIs and Japanese Jobless rate, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production are all out Tuesday.
Important Events Preview
Australia Retail Sales | US FOMC, Payrolls | UK Quiet | EZ Preliminary CPI, GDP | China PMIs
Also in the What to Watch
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All prices and analysis at 18 April 2024. This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB").
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