What to Watch - Week of 16 September

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

• The NAB Business Survey saw conditions and confidence fall in August
• RBA’s Hunter concluded the cooling labour market is still too tight
• Slightly hot US CPI briefly saw 50bp cut bets pared, but after PPI pricing is back to 36bp for next week’s meeting even as analysts have tended to coalesce around a 25bp cut.
• The ECB cut rates for the second time this cycle

Week ahead

• In Australia, we expect the unemployment rate (Thursday) to hold at 4.2% in August after last month’s participation-driven increase.
• In NZ, Thursday’s GDP data is expected to show another quarter of decline. Balance of payments data is Wednesday
• In the US, the FOMC will cut on Wednesday, but how much? Analysts have coalesced around 25bp, but markets price more than a 1 in 3 chance of a 50bp move.
• It’s a quiet week in Europe in the wake of the ECB meeting.
• The UK get August inflation data Wednesday ahead of the BoE Thursday, where a hold is widely expected. Retail sales are Friday.
• In China, monthly activity indicators are tomorrow (Saturday 14th)
• In Japan, the BoJ is universally seen standing pat on Friday, the same day as August CPI is published.

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

• Important Events Preview 
• Weekly Calendar 
• NAB Research Forecasts

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