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What to Watch - Week of 23 September 2024

Another week and another central bank on watch. This time the RBA, with forecasts the Australian central bank will again keep rates on hold when it meets on Tuesday. Focus then shifts to the all-important CPI print on Wednesday, which is expected to fall to 2.7% from 3.5% (in line with consensus). On the global stage, a deluge of data in the US alongside a bevy of FOMC speakers in the wake of last week’s super-size 50bps cut.

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • FOMC opts for 50bp, but the dots show that isn’t the baseline going forward.
  • Locally, strong employment growth means the RBA goes into its meeting next week still assessing the labour market is a bit too tight for comfort, in contrast to the assessment in the US.
  • Elsewhere, the BoE and BoJ stood pat.

Week ahead

  • In Australia, the RBA is seen on hold on Tuesday, ahead of the August Monthly CPI Indicator (Wednesday) and Job Vacancies (Thursday). The Financial Stability Review is published Thursday. 
  • Quiet in NZ, with trade data on Monday and consumer confidence Friday
  • In the US, there is an array of second tier data that builds to the PCE report on Friday. FOMC speakers in the wake of the September cut include Bostic (Monday) and Williams (Thursday).
  • S&P Global Preliminary PMIs are published Monday and are the key data on the European and UK calendars. French and Spanish preliminary CPI are Friday ahead of the eurozone-wide measure out 1 October.
  • Quiet in China too, with the MLF rate seen unchanged Wednesday and industrial profits Friday.
  • In Japan, Tokyo CPI is Friday, and an internal LDP leadership election that will ultimately determine who will replaces Prime Minister Fumio Kishida

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