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What to Watch - Week of 21 October 2024

It is expected to be yet another quiet week on the data docket here at home. On the global stage, focus shifts to Canada, with the BoC meeting on Wednesday where markets have priced in an 89% chance of a supersized 50 basis point cut. In Europe, PMIs are on watch while in the US it's all about earnings with big names Tesla, Boeing and UPS all handing down numbers.
NAB Markets Research
21 October 2024
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • Locally, very strong labour market figures have seen a paring back of rate cut expectations for 2024
  • In the US, Retail Sales for September surprised strongly. The beat highlights the strength and outperformance of US data flow
  • Markets are becoming slightly less convinced the US Fed will cut rates in both November and December with a cumulative 42.7bps priced, down from 46.3pbs last week

Week Ahead

  • Australia is very quiet this week with only a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Hauser (Monday) of note.
  • Offshore it is also mostly quiet with the IMF/WB annual meetings from Monday occupying central bankers and finance ministers globally
  • In Canada, the BoC (Wednesday) meets. Markets are 89% priced for a supersized 50bp cut. The BoC have been of the view that activity growth needed to strengthen so that inflation stays close to 2%.
  • In Europe, focus will be on the Global PMIs (Thursday) and the extent to which they continue to reflect subdued growth in the Eurozone
  • In Asia it is also quiet. In China the Loan Prime Rate (Monday) should be cut by 20-25bps as already flagged by the PBoC Governor Pan. In Japan the Tokyo CPI (Friday) is also out, though with little change in the inflation pace expected with core expected at 1.6% y/y.
  • There is no top-tier data in NZ with only the Trade Balance (Tuesday). RBNZ Governor Orr though is speaking on the side-lines of the IMF/WB meetings on Wednesday, as is the ECB’s Lagarde and the BoE’s Bailley.
  • Earnings season also continues. Big names include Tesla and Boeing (Wednesday), and UPS and Barclays (Thursday).

View the full report here

Past week - Chart 1: Australian labour market remains strong with unemployment ticking marginally below the RBA's August SoMP forecast track

Past week - Chart 2: US data flow is surprising to the upside, so is Australia

Week ahead - Chart 3: Global PMIs the major data point this week. US outperformance clearly seen in the Services PMI

 

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