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What to Watch - Week of 11 November

After last week’s heavy docket, the week begins with focus on jobs locally, NAB expects Thursday’s print to show unemployment unchanged at 4.1%, and wages growth of 0.9% q/q. Globally, all eyes remain state side, with CPI (Weds) and PPI (Thurs), and lots of chatter around the implications of a Trump Presidency. China will be busy, and the UK has GDP and wages data. Here’s what you need to know.
NAB Markets Research
11 November 2024
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Tapas Strickland, Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • The RBA was on hold as expected, with a resilient labour market and only gradual erosion of excess demand keeping the RBA firmly on the sidelines
  • No surprises from the BoE and FOMC either, both delivering 25bp cuts as expected. The Riksbank cut by 50bp, while Norges kept rates on hold
  • It was the US election that pulled focus as markets weigh the implications of Trump’s presidency and the ultimate makeup of congress. The weekly moves though paint a different picture to the much stronger USD and rise in yields seen on Wednesday, with the DXY up just 0.2% over the week and US10yr yields 5bp lower at 4.33%. 

Week ahead

  • Australian labour market is under focus this week with Q3 WPI (Wednesday) and October Labour Force (Thursday). We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.1% and for wages growth of 0.9% q/q.
  • It is unlikely the WPI will have much bearing given the RBA had observed in their recent SoMP that even though wages growth has moderated, labour cost growth is still elevated alongside weak productivity growth
  • US starts quiet with Veterans Day (Monday). Then its CPI (Wednesday), PPI (Thursday) and the Fed’s Powell (also Thursday). Expect lots more chatter around the implications of a Trump Presidency
  • China has its monthly activity drop of Retail Sales, Industrial Production and FAI (Friday). Overshadowing will be analysts’ interpretation of a potential fiscal package which was due to be announced on November 8
  • Europe is relatively quiet, though the German ZEW (Tuesday) may be looked at more closely for any hit to sentiment in Europe from the US election. The European Commission also publishes its forecasts on Friday
  • The UK has its Q3 GDP (Friday) and wages data (Tuesday). Japan also has Q3 GDP. NZ also fairly quiet – Selected Price Indicators (Thursday) of note. 

View the full report here

Also in the What to Watch

 

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All prices and analysis at 8 November 2024.  This information has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 ("NAB").

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