What to Watch - Week of 18 November
Tapas Strickland, Taylor Nugent | Markets Research
Past Week
- NAB changed its RBA call to a first cut in May 2025 (from February). We also made large forecast revisions to our FX outlook, as well as revising our US Fed outlook.
- On the data front, employment rose 15k, but payback from recent strength was modest and the trend is a robust +37k. The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%.
- In the US, CPI and PPI data continued the theme of stronger US data than the FOMC had pencilled into September dots. Powell said “the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”
Week ahead
- Quiet in Australia with only the RBA Minutes from November, and a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent. Neither are likely to be overly market moving given the plethora of RBA speak recently
- Offshore it is also relatively quiet and most focus is still likely to be in trying to the likely policy mix and sequencing under a Trump administration. The ongoing drip feed of cabinet positions will be important
- Global PMIs (Friday) will garner the most focus, especially in the EZ and UK. We will also be watching for any hit to sentiment in Europe from the US elections; the recent German ZEW survey suggests a large hit
- In the US it is a mainly housing focused with permits/starts (Tuesday), along with Fed speak (Goolsbee and Hammack speak Thursday)
- Elsewhere, it is a big week for CPIs with Canada, UK and Japan publishing October CPI figures. For Canada the data should be supportive for further rate cuts. While in Japan politics may push further normalisation into 2025.
- China has its loan prime rates (Wednesday) with consensus for no change. It is also very quiet in NZ with no data of note
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