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What to Watch - Week of 16 December 2024

It will be a relatively quiet week on the local data docket as the festive season approaches, though there will be some focus on the release of MYEFO from the Federal Government. Globally, it’s a different story with a central bank bonanza on tap. The US Fed (Wednesday), BoJ (Thursday), BoE (Thursday), Norges bank (Thursday) and Riksbank (Thursday) all hand down interest rate decision. The market is widely tipping a 25bps cut from the FOMC but more focus will be on the path for 2025. Here’s what you need to know.
NAB Markets Research
16 December 2024
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Taylor Nugent & Tapas Strickland | Markets Research 

Past Week

  • RBA was less concerned about upside inflation risk on Tuesday.
  • But a fall in the unemployment rate Thursday shows slow growth has not translated into labour markets spare capacity.
  • On net, RBA pricing is back where it was a week ago.
  • Globally, the ECB cut 25bp, and US inflation data didn’t stand in the way of a FOMC cut next week.

Week ahead

  • Australia has a quiet lead into the festive season with only second tier data, though budget updates are expected in the week from the Commonwealth (MYEFO) and from some states (NSW and perhaps a few others).
  • A busy week for central banks with the US Fed (Wednesday), BoJ (Thursday), BoE (Thursday), Norges bank (Thursday) and Riksbank (Thursday) all meeting.
  • The US Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps, but more focus on the path for 2025 and an updated neutral rate estimate given a still strong economy and the prospect of tariffs and tax cuts.
  • The BoJ is expected to hold rates if media reports are to be believed with January now seen as the most likely meeting date for further normalisation. The BoE is also expected to hold rates steady, as is the Norgesbank. In contrast the Riskbank is expected to cut rates by 25bps. 
  • Europe sees the PMIs (Monday) as well as UK Unemployment (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday). In the US, the PMI read is also likely to garner more focus than usual to see whether it follows the alternative ISM lower.
  • China’s monthly activity indicators (Monday) see the usual Retail Sales, Industrial Production and FAI. With stimulus notions in the air, it is hard to see this data being overly market moving.
  • In NZ Q3 GDP (Thursday) and the ANZ Business Survey (also Thursday) are likely to garner attention. Consensus for GDP is for a contraction of -0.4% q/q and -0.4% y/y.

View the full report here

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