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What to Watch - Week of 9 December 2024

It’s all eyes on the RBA this week, seen firmly on hold with no new forecasts. Elsewhere, employment is seen up 25k in November, and while NAB has pencilled in a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, it’s a close call between that and remaining at 4.1%. Globally, CPI and PPI are the main events on the US calendar, with the BoC, ECB and Swiss National Bank all expected to cut rates this week. Finally, a deluge of data from China with inflation figures, trade and credit data all hitting the wires. Here’s what you need to watch in the week ahead.
NAB Markets Research
09 December 2024
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Taylor Nugent & Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past Week

  • Australian retail sales beat in October at 0.6% m/m vs. the 0.4% consensus, giving promising signs for consumption to pickup in Q4
  • However, Q3 GDP missed at 0.3% q/q. There was an outsized market reaction with markets now almost fully pricing a full rate cut by April 2025
  • Trump’s nominations continue to trickle out. The most important for trade and the prospect of tariffs was Peter Navarro being picked as Trade Adviser

Week ahead

  • The RBA will be firmly on hold on Tuesday with no new forecasts. Also from the RBA is Deputy Governor Hauser (Wednesday) and Chief Economist Hunter (Friday).
  • On the data side, employment is seen up 25k in November, and while we pencil in a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, it’s a close call between that and remaining at 4.1%. The RBA’s concern the labour market is tighter than is consistent with full employment is unlikely to fade quickly.
  • US CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) dominates the US calendar, with the early consensus for a fourth consecutive 0.3% m/m core CPI. FOMC speakers are in the pre-FOMC quiet period after tonight.
  • We expect the ECB to cut 25bp on Thursday, in line with consensus and market pricing. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and Swiss National Bank (Thursday) will both cut rates, but markets and analysts are split on whether it will be by 25 or 50bps.
  • China gets inflation, trade and credit data, but more focus will be on the readout of the Central Economic Work Conference, expected Thursday. Media suggesting not to expect much in the way of announcements.

Also in the What to Watch

View the full report here

 

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