What to Watch - Week of 13 January
Taylor Nugent | Markets Research
Past Week
- Australian November CPI Indicator indicates inflation was meaningfully more benign than the RBA had pencilled into its cautious November forecast.
- Meanwhile, Vacancies rose in Q4 and added to a range of indicators suggesting recent stabilisation in the labour market. Retail sales were consistent with ongoing modest pickup in consumption growth
Week ahead
- Australia Employment Thursday is the final labour market print ahead of the RBA’s February 18 decision. We pencil in an unemployment rate of 4.0% from 3.9% in November, in line with consensus. Seasonal quirks set up the risk of a soft employment number. Consumer confidence is released Tuesday.
- NZ see building permits, filled jobs, selected price indicators and the Manufacturing PMI.
- In the US, PPI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) headline the data calendar, with FOMC participants fearful inflation progress has stalled. Retail sales is Thursday.
- Also of note in the US is earnings season, with a host of Banks reporting Wednesday, and Senate confirmation hearings taking place for a number of Trump appointees, including Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent.
- Europe is quiet. UK CPI on Wednesday will be scoured for further progress on services. Monthly GDP data is released Thursday.
- China GDP data on Friday is expected to show some improvement from the weak Q2 and Q3 outcomes.
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