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What to Watch - Week of 27 January

Inflation is the name of the game locally in the week ahead, in what’s a shortened holiday week. Q4 CPI figures hit the wires on Wednesday, with NAB expecting the all-important trimmed mean to come in at 0.5% q/q and 3.2% y/y. State side, the FOMC is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets on Wednesday and earnings season continues in full swing with Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple all reporting through the week. In Europe, the ECB is tipped to cut, and Lunar New Year is Wednesday with holidays through much of Asia.
NAB Markets Research
24 January 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Taylor Nugent | Markets Research

Past Week

  • It was a quiet week in Australia with focus squarely on US politics
  • Some relief that tariffs were not top of the agenda has seen the USD lower and a modest relief rally in the AUD, up nearly 2% over the week
  • The BoJ raised rates to 0.5% as widely expected

Week ahead

  • After a holiday Monday, Q4 CPI on Wednesday dominates the Australian Calendar. The NAB Business Survey is published Tuesday.
  • NAB expects trimmed mean of 0.5% q/q and 3.2% y/y, with housing components driving the deceleration, and headline of 0.2% q/q and 2.4% y/y. Consensus is 0.6% q/q for trimmed mean and 0.4% q/q for headline. See CPI Preview – housing drives lower trimmed mean in Q4.
  • In NZ, RBNZ’s Conway speaks Wednesday. Data during the week includes December filled jobs, trade, and ANZ business and consumer surveys.
  • In the US, the FOMC is set to be on hold Wednesday with no new forecast. Advanced Q4 GDP is Wednesday and December PCE deflator is out Friday.
  • Earnings season continues with Microsoft, Meta, Telsa, and Apple all reporting through the week.
  • In Europe, the ECB is set to cut 25bp on Thursday. Advanced Q4 GDP is also Thursday, and Germany and France CPIs are Friday ahead of the eurozone wide measure the following week.
  • Lunar New year is Wednesday, with holidays through much of Asia. Before that, China official PMIs are Monday. 

View the full report here. 

Also in the What to Watch

 

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