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What to Watch - Week of 3 February 2025

It will be busy on both the local data and corporate reporting calendars this week, but focus remains fixed on the RBA’s interest rate decision on 18 Feb, where markets have priced in a 94% chance of a rate cut. Globally, tariffs are the name of the game after US President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico with a further 10% on China. Both Mexico and Canada have retaliated, which could make for a volatile week.
NAB Markets Research
03 February 2025
Created by potrace 1.15, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2017 3 min read

Tapas Strickland | Markets Research

Past Week

  • Q4 CPI comfortably undershot the RBA’s dated November forecasts driven by cooler housing components.
  • Markets are now 92% priced for a cut on 18 February
  • Globally, the roster of central banks provided no surprises and a small downside surprise to US Q4 GDP masked very strong consumption
  • Tariff headlines continue to occupy the attention of currency markets, while the Deepseek news and Big Tech earnings swung equities.

Week ahead

  • Australian data flow is heavy, but not top tier with nothing to really shape views ahead of the RBA’s 17-18 February meeting where markets are 94% priced for a rate cut. This week includes retail sales and building approvals.
  • Offshore focus on possible Tariffs. US President Trump declared 1 February as a deadline to decide whether to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico to force action on migration/ fentanyl and a 10% tariff on China
  • In the US, Payrolls (Friday) the other focal point. Before then ISM Manufacturing (Monday), JOLTS (Tuesday), ISM Services (Wednesday). Penty of Fed speak too.
  • In Europe, the BoE meets and is set to cut by 25bp on Thursday. Also out is EZ CPI (Monday). Canada has labour market data, but will be overshadowed should the US decide to levy tariffs.
  • NZ has key labour market data (Wednesday), before the Waitangi public holiday on Thursday which will likely make NZ markets quiet on Friday as well.
  • Elsewhere, China is back from its Lunar New Year holidays on Wednesday with the Caixin PMIs out in the week. Finally, the earnings season continues, with Amazon (Thursday).

View the full report here

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